Business/Consumer · NEWS EXPLAINER
US consumer confidence falls to 81.9 as job and price worries deepen
The Conference Board’s September index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest level since 2014, as views of business conditions, jobs and household finances weakened.
US consumer confidence weakened sharply in September. The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 from 88.6 in August, the lowest reading since 2014. Its Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, while the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6 for a third consecutive monthly decline.
The survey is a measure of household sentiment, not a forecast that spending or employment must fall. But the underlying responses show why the drop matters: fewer respondents said jobs were plentiful, more said jobs were hard to get, and planned purchases of homes and autos edged lower on a six-month moving-average basis. Reuters and AP independently reported the same deterioration in confidence after the September release.
What changed in September
The Conference Board’s September 1–23 survey found weaker views of both current conditions and the next six months. Net assessments of current business conditions turned negative, and expectations for business conditions, jobs and household income all deteriorated from August.
That broad decline is why the headline index moved much more than it had in the prior two months. Reuters reported that the 81.9 reading was below the 89.2 median forecast in its economist poll, while AP separately confirmed the 6.7-point monthly drop.
Jobs and prices are the pressure points to watch
Labor-market sentiment softened. The share of respondents calling jobs plentiful fell to 23.6%, and the share saying jobs were hard to get rose to 21.9%. The Conference Board’s labor-market differential narrowed to 1.7 percentage points from 4.2 in August.
Price and borrowing-cost concerns also remained prominent in write-in responses. The survey’s average 12-month inflation expectation rose to 6.1%, and 68.4% of respondents expected interest rates to be higher over the next year. Those are expectations reported by survey respondents, not official inflation or rate forecasts.
What the survey does—and does not—say about household spending
Plans to buy autos and homes both edged lower on a six-month moving-average basis, and expected spending on many discretionary services moderated. The Conference Board said planned spending on hotels, movies, airfare and amusement parks softened, while restaurants, connectivity, personal care, utilities and healthcare remained among the most common intended service categories.
At the same time, 42.6% of respondents said they planned a vacation in the next six months, up 0.5 percentage point from August, with the increase concentrated in domestic travel. That mixed picture is a reminder that weaker confidence can signal caution without implying that every category of household spending will fall at once.
